Golf fans and bettors alike are in for a thrilling few weeks. The PGA Tour has hit its stride with a legendary lineup of events, including the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, the Charles Schwab Challenge—Ben Hogan’s historic “Hogan’s Alley”—and Jack Nicklaus’s Memorial Tournament up next. The action continues with the Canadian Open, U.S. Open, Scottish Open, and The Open Championship, making it a prime time for golf viewing and strategic sports betting.
As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas, is heating up. With 36 holes complete, the tournament has delivered some surprises and set the stage for a competitive weekend showdown. Let’s dive into expert picks and predictions for the final rounds.
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Scottie Scheffler: The Unlikely Underdog
Surprisingly, Scottie Scheffler, the current world No. 1, is facing an unexpected challenge as he lags 10 strokes behind the leader and is positioned in a tie for 49th place. After opening with a promising 2-under-par 68 on Thursday, Scheffler faltered with a 1-over-par 71 on Friday. This performance has placed him at a surprising 35-1 odds to win, a rare sight for the three-time major champion and Texas Longhorn favorite.
Despite his struggles, Scheffler’s ability to rally under pressure is well-known. While a win might be out of reach, don’t count him out for a solid finish or a potential Top 20 placement if he finds momentum over the weekend.
Top Pick: Ben Griffin to Win (+210)
Ben Griffin is riding high following his team’s victory at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Now leading solo at 11-under-par alongside Matti Schmid, Griffin is poised for his first individual PGA Tour win. His statistics suggest he’s in top form:
- 7th in Strokes Gained: Approach
- 4th in Greens in Regulation
- 6th in SG: Around the Green
- 1st in SG: Tee to Green
Perhaps most impressively, Griffin gains over three strokes on the field with his putter and ranks 10th in SG: Putting this week. While a slight putting regression could occur, his all-around game is solid enough to sustain a strong finish. Griffin is a smart pick to close the weekend as champion, especially given his current odds.
Value Bet: Emiliano Grillo Top 5 Finish (+400)
Last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge winner Emiliano Grillo continues to show strong form at Colonial Country Club. Sitting within striking distance, Grillo brings elite ball-striking to the table:
- 14th in SG: Off the Tee
- 1st in Driving Accuracy
- 4th in Greens in Regulation
- 6th in SG: Approach
- 3rd in SG: Tee to Green
Although his putting has been shaky this week—ranking 68th in SG: Putting—Grillo has made significant strides in this department over the past year. Ranked 48th on Tour in SG: Putting, he’s a much-improved putter and could rebound over the weekend. At +400 for a Top 5 finish, Grillo offers excellent value for bettors.
Fade Alert: Matti Schmid to Regress (+400)
Matti Schmid shares the lead with Griffin, but his long-term viability this weekend is questionable. While his putter has been red-hot—ranking 1st in SG: Putting—his other metrics raise red flags:
- 61st in Driving Accuracy
- 60th in Greens in Regulation
- 31st in SG: Approach
- 25th in SG: Around the Green
Schmid has excelled in alternate-field events but has struggled against stronger competition. He’s missed the cut at all three Texas-based tournaments this year: the Houston Open, Valero Texas Open, and CJ Cup Byron Nelson. His performance appears overly reliant on his short game, and if his putting cools down, expect a significant slide in the standings.
Charles Schwab Challenge betting guide: 6 picks our expert loves – https://t.co/8cb07WmfoY https://t.co/wlH3V2zGLk
— Golf Venezuela (@GolfVenezuela) May 21, 2025
Weather Outlook: Wind and Heat Will Challenge Players
The final rounds are expected to bring high temperatures in the low 90s and winds ranging from 10 to 20 mph. Friday’s conditions may have been the most favorable of the week, but the tougher weekend forecast will test every aspect of players’ games—especially ball control and putting under pressure.
Underrated Contenders to Watch
Aside from the frontrunners, several golfers sit within striking distance and could surge up the leaderboard:
- John Pak: Just two shots off the lead, Pak surprised many as the first-round leader. If his ball-striking holds up, he could be a dark horse threat.
- Akshay Bhatia (-7): Known for his fearless style, Bhatia is four strokes back and has the firepower to make a weekend charge.
- Group at -6: Veterans like Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood, and J.J. Spaun remain in contention. Their experience in final-round pressure could make the difference.
Smart Betting for the Weekend
The Charles Schwab Challenge continues to deliver drama, storylines, and valuable betting opportunities. Ben Griffin looks ready to claim his first solo PGA Tour title, while Emiliano Grillo offers substantial Top 5 value with elite ball striking. Meanwhile, bettors should be cautious with Matti Schmid, whose reliance on putting might not hold under weekend pressure.
With harsh conditions on tap and the leaderboard packed, expect volatility—and opportunity. Tail the smart bets, avoid emotional plays and enjoy a high-stakes finish at Hogan’s Alley.
