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2025 College Football Playoff Picture: Key Games Shaping the 12-Team Race

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The 2025 college football season is poised to deliver unforgettable matchups that will determine the fate of the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP). With mega-conferences firmly established and lessons learned from 2024, fans are eager to see which teams rise to the challenge. This article breaks down the most pivotal games each week, offering insights into how they could impact conference races, at-large bids, and CFP seeding.

Week 0: Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Dublin)

The college football season starts with a critical Big 12 matchup in Dublin. Kansas State and Iowa State have played crucial roles in past conference title races, and this early rivalry game could establish momentum for either team. In a league where multiple teams often tie for first place, head-to-head victories like this can decide CFP aspirations.

Week 1: Texas at Ohio State

Week 1 features several marquee nonconference games, but the rematch of last year’s Cotton Bowl semifinal stands out. Texas and Ohio State could enter this clash as the nation’s top two teams, setting the tone for their CFP campaigns. While a loss won’t eliminate either team from contention, a win will bolster the victor’s playoff résumé.

Week 2: Baylor at SMU

Baylor’s nonconference slate could define the Big 12’s national standing in 2025. After hosting Auburn in Week 1, the Bears travel to Dallas to face SMU, the ACC runner-up. A win here would elevate Baylor’s CFP profile and strengthen the Big 12’s case for an at-large bid, especially as the conference battles for national respect.

Week 3: Texas A&M at Notre Dame

South Bend hosts a high-stakes showdown between Texas A&M and Notre Dame. Both teams aim to rebuild their playoff credentials after setbacks in 2024. With Notre Dame potentially coming off a win against Miami or seeking redemption and Texas A&M looking for a signature victory, this game could be a turning point in both teams’ seasons.

Week 4: Tulane at Ole Miss and Arkansas at Memphis

This week offers critical matchups for the American Athletic Conference (AAC). Tulane and Memphis, the AAC’s top contenders, face SEC powerhouses Ole Miss and Arkansas. Wins here could revive the AAC’s CFP hopes after missing the playoffs in 2024, showcasing the strength of its programs.

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A rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game highlights the Week 5 slate

Week 5: Oregon at Penn State

This clash between Oregon and Penn State promises fireworks, a rematch of the electrifying 2024 Big Ten Championship Game. The Nittany Lions, seeking revenge in Happy Valley, will aim to derail Oregon’s momentum. With only three games between the Big Ten’s “Big Four” (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon), this matchup carries immense CFP implications.

Week 6: Kansas State at Baylor

Baylor returns to the spotlight in Week 6 with a pivotal Big 12 matchup against Kansas State. Depending on early-season results, this game could determine the conference’s top contender. In a league as competitive as the Big 12, every victory counts toward securing a CFP berth.

Week 7: Texas vs. Oklahoma

The Red River Rivalry takes center stage in Week 7. A strong CFP contender, Texas faces a potential trap game against an Oklahoma team under pressure to deliver results. While the Sooners may not be playoff-bound, the stakes remain high for both programs in this storied rivalry.

Week 8: SMU at Clemson

The ACC title race heats up as SMU visits Clemson in a 2024 ACC Championship Game rematch. This game could shape the playoff aspirations of both teams. With Clemson eyeing another playoff run and SMU seeking its first win in Death Valley, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Week 9: BYU at Iowa State

BYU’s surprising strength in the Big 12 could hinge on this trip to Ames. Facing reigning Big 12 runner-up Iowa State, BYU has a chance to prove its playoff worth. Meanwhile, this week also features Texas A&M at LSU, further complicating the CFP picture.

Week 10: Penn State at Ohio State

The Penn State-Ohio State rivalry once again takes the spotlight. Both teams consistently impact the CFP race, and this matchup will shape perceptions of their playoff credentials. A win here could separate the contenders from the pretenders in the Big Ten.

Week 11: LSU at Alabama

The LSU-Alabama rivalry remains a cornerstone of the SEC title race. Alabama’s 2024 victory paved its path to the SEC Championship, but LSU eagerly awaits redemption. With CFP implications, this game could define the season for both programs.

Week 12: Texas at Georgia

Two top-five teams clash in a regular-season rematch of the 2024 SEC Championship Game. The stakes are massive for Texas and Georgia as they battle for conference supremacy and playoff seeding. The outcome will ripple across the CFP landscape.

Week 13: Tennessee at Florida

Tennessee looks to solidify its position in the CFP race with a critical matchup against Florida. Both teams have much to prove, and this late-season SEC showdown could determine their playoff fate.

Week 14: Ohio State at Michigan

The ultimate game of the 2025 regular season, Ohio State vs. Michigan, commands attention. With both teams boasting recent national championships, this rivalry extends beyond bragging rights. The stakes include conference titles, playoff positioning, and legacy. It’s a must-watch game to close out the regular season.

The 2025 college football season promises thrilling action from Week 0 to Week 14, with each game shaping the Race to the 12-team College Football Playoff. Whether it’s conference rivalries, nonconference clashes, or high-stakes showdowns, every week offers moments that could define the season.