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Expert Analysis of the Best Forward Transfer Decision for DGW25
As Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers weigh their options for Double Gameweek 25 (DGW25), a crucial question arises: Should Alexander Isak (£9.5m) be sold to bring in Ollie Watkins (£8.9m)? The Scout and FPL experts assess whether this transfer makes sense considering upcoming fixtures, form, and potential points returns.
Fixture Analysis: Isak vs. Watkins
While Newcastle United’s Isak and Aston Villa’s Watkins face a Blank Gameweek 29 (BGW29), their immediate schedules present contrasting challenges.
- Alexander Isak has a problematic run leading up to BGW29, with matches against Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, and Liverpool in the next three Gameweeks. Additionally, Newcastle has just one home match in the next five Gameweeks, which could limit his goal-scoring opportunities.
- Ollie Watkins, on the other hand, has an appealing schedule. Villa plays three home matches in the next two Gameweeks, facing Ipswich Town and Liverpool in DGW25 before hosting Chelsea in Gameweek 26.
Watkins’ Home vs. Away Performance
Watkins has demonstrated significantly better form at Villa Park compared to away fixtures. Notably:
- 42 shots inside the box at home vs. just 14 away
- 17 big chances created at home, compared to only 12 away
- Direct involvement in 20 big chances at home vs. 12 in away matches
These numbers highlight his superior output in home matches, making him an attractive asset for DGW25.
Expert Opinions: Should Managers Make the Swap?
Oscar (@FPLFocal)
If Watkins is confirmed fit, transferring him in for Isak is a viable strategy due to his DGW25 fixtures. However, managers must plan for BGW29 accordingly.
Verdict: Sell Isak if it doesn’t disrupt the BGW29 strategy.
Sam Bonfield (@FPLFamily)
While Double Gameweek players are tempting, swapping Isak for Watkins isn’t ideal. The trade-off would likely require additional transfers, leading to potential points hits.
Verdict: Keep Isak.
Gianni Buttice (@GianniButtice)
Watkins is a good option, but not at the cost of selling Isak. Given the minimal price difference, keeping Isak remains the better choice.
Verdict: Keep Isak.
Utkarsh Dalmia (@ZopharFPL)
Watkins’ injury concerns make this swap risky. Isak’s difficult fixtures do not outweigh the risk of losing value and having to repurchase him later.
Verdict: Keep Isak.
Harry Daniels (@FPL_Harry)
If Watkins isn’t guaranteed to start, then selling Isak is not worth the risk. The additional fixture in DGW25 isn’t enough to justify the transfer.
Verdict: Keep Isak.
Pras (@Pras_FPL)
Given Isak’s form and City’s recent defensive struggles, he remains a strong option. Meanwhile, Watkins has injury concerns, making him a risky transfer.
Verdict: Keep Isak.
Pranil Sheth (@Lateriser12)
If Watkins were fully fit, the move could be justified. However, Isak is likely to have a DGW later in the season, making it wiser to keep him.
Verdict: Keep Isak.
Stick with Isak or Make the Switch?
Based on expert insights, the consensus is to hold onto Isak. Watkins’ fitness concerns and the value tied up in Isak make the swap less appealing. While Watkins has better short-term fixtures, managers must consider long-term planning, including BGW29 and potential future Double Gameweeks for Isak.
Recommendation
- Sell Isak for Watkins ONLY if you have a solid plan for BGW29 and Watkins is a confirmed fit.
- Keep Isak if You want to retain value, avoid unnecessary points hits, and prepare for a potential DGW for Isak later in the season.
Carefully assess your squad structure and future game weeks before making the transfer decision.
