The Toronto Blue Jays have yet to secure a contract extension with their powerhouse first baseman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. With his self-imposed deadline now expired, Guerrero is on track to hit free agency next offseason, opening the door for a bidding war among 29 other teams.
“I’m here. We were unable to reach an agreement,” Guerrero conveyed through an interpreter. “Now, they’re going to have to compete with 29 other teams.”
While the Blue Jays still have time to negotiate a deal during the season, history suggests that once a player reaches this stage, free agency becomes inevitable. Could Guerrero follow in the footsteps of other superstars who returned to their original team, like Pete Alonso with the Mets? Or will he explore new opportunities with a different team?
Let’s break down all 30 MLB teams and their chances of signing Guerrero, from least likely to most likely.
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No Chance: Teams That Are Out of the Running
Several teams either lack the financial flexibility or ownership commitment to make a serious play for Guerrero. Some of these franchises have never offered a player a $100+ million contract, making a blockbuster deal highly improbable.
Teams in this category:
- Oakland Athletics (Sacramento Athletics?) – Relocation uncertainty and financial limitations make them an unlikely destination.
- Tampa Bay Rays – Consistently operate with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball.
- Miami Marlins – Historically avoid high-cost free-agent signings.
- Chicago White Sox – A struggling franchise with a reputation for limited spending.
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Have never signed a player to a $100M+ contract.
- Cleveland Guardians – Notorious for developing stars only to let them leave in free agency.
- Milwaukee Brewers – Prioritize internal development over large free-agent splashes.
- Cincinnati Reds – Rebuild mode makes a massive Guerrero deal unlikely.
Long Shots: Possible, But Unlikely
These teams have the financial means but likely won’t prioritize signing Guerrero due to roster construction, spending philosophy, or competitive timeline.
Teams in this tier:
- Baltimore Orioles – Emerging as a contender but still reluctant to make huge free-agent splashes.
- Colorado Rockies – A hitter-friendly park could appeal to Guerrero, but ownership is unpredictable.
- Kansas City Royals – Not in a position to spend big despite a developing core.
- Detroit Tigers – Slowly rebuilding, but a Guerrero signing seems premature.
- St. Louis Cardinals – A traditional powerhouse, but current spending trends indicate a different approach.
- Minnesota Twins – Capable of large contracts but seem reluctant in recent seasons.
Mid-Tier Contenders: Teams That Could Surprise
These organizations have the financial muscle and potential positional openings but may need a roster shake-up or ownership approval to pursue Guerrero aggressively.
Teams in this category:
- San Diego Padres – Have spent aggressively in the past but seem to be scaling back.
- Seattle Mariners – Possess financial flexibility but rarely outbid competitors.
- Houston Astros – A big-market team but their spending philosophy raises questions.
- Atlanta Braves – Matt Olson is locked in at first base, but they could shift things around.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Freeman is at first, and Ohtani is locked in at DH, making a fit difficult.
- New York Mets – With Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor on massive deals, another mega-contract is uncertain.
- Los Angeles Angels – Plenty of payroll flexibility post-2026 but an unpredictable front office.
- Chicago Cubs – Financially capable, but front-office direction remains uncertain.
- San Francisco Giants – Have pursued big names in free agency before and lack a long-term first baseman.
- Texas Rangers – Defending champs with money to spend and a first-base vacancy looming.
- Washington Nationals – A young, emerging team with minimal long-term financial commitments.
Top Contenders: The Likeliest Destinations for Guerrero
These teams have the financial backing, competitive status, and roster fit to make a serious run at signing Guerrero.
- Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are already stacked, but with key contracts expiring soon, they could make a move. If Kyle Schwarber leaves in free agency, they may push for Guerrero, potentially shifting Bryce Harper back to the outfield.
- Boston Red Sox
Boston was an even better fit before signing Alex Bregman, which complicated their infield setup. However, if Rafael Devers moves to DH or Triston Casas struggles, the Red Sox could aggressively pursue Guerrero.
- Arizona Diamondbacks
A dark-horse contender, the D-backs have the financial capability and a competitive roster. With no clear long-term first baseman, Guerrero would fit perfectly into their emerging powerhouse lineup.
- New York Yankees
The Yankees have the financial firepower to sign any free agent. With Paul Goldschmidt on a one-year deal and showing signs of decline, the Yankees could see Guerrero as their long-term answer at first base.
- Toronto Blue Jays
The best-case scenario for the Blue Jays is keeping Guerrero in Toronto. He’s made it clear he’s open to staying—if the front office steps up. Losing out on Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto means they have no excuse not to go all-in on their homegrown superstar.
While Guerrero is set to be one of the most sought-after free agents, the Blue Jays remain his most logical destination—if they’re willing to pay. If they don’t, powerhouse franchises like the Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox will be ready to pounce. Keep an eye on the Diamondbacks as a dark-horse contender in this high-stakes bidding war.
Where do you think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will land in free agency? Let the speculation begin!
